US - Part 2
US - Part 2
So how long does it take to be a versatilist? What does it take to become one? How can you know that this is the right path for you? Tough questions that I wrestled with for years - tough because I had a lot of unlearning to do.
Some of these questions will get answered over time, but let me settle some in you by making this statement: Versatilists are better at sensing and seeing the bullshit and knowing the way forward.
You see, one of the greatest lessons I learned in my time trading the markets is that simply put, life is binary. There are those that make and sell the narrative (leader, pastor, executive, banker, market maker, oligarch etc) and those who buy the message and product, the sheep.
Fast forward, the message over the middle class for the last 50 years has been ..."work hard, go the college, get a degree and get a good job and you'll have a good life". You don't have to be a genius to know that this phrase has been cliche to the middle class for most of the decades its been in use. So, what is the message now?
Go to college and get a good job - well, not if you ask a millennial. They know that there are few jobs and even if they got a job out of school, they will be strapped with debt for the decade after college, at best. Maybe it is, save and plan for retirement? Or invest aggressively before you hit 30...
The reality is there are too many narratives to list that have been debunked so let's talk about post-2008 and change the subject.
Clearly, people have tightened their purse strings a bit or at least looked at/started a budget. Saving and retirement accounts are receiving even more attention from people in their 30's, let alone with Gen X and the Boomers. But are these really the right questions to ask?
What if all of these are reasonable suggestions? I think they are. I think they are very reasonable, but I also believe that they are not the point, at least, not the starting point.
The starting point for us is recognizing the need for stability and consequently removing our attachments to the stock market and subsequent packages. Now, you'll never hear this from a financial advisor and rightly so. It's their job to put you into investments that match your income and stage in life. But what if the validity of those packages is about to change?
I was listening to an ad by Dean Graziosi the other day where he was sitting with his daughter who, I believe, is in kindergarten and he asked her a question about a long-term chart of the stock market (either the S&P or the Dow). He was showing her that the line went up and then down and then up and then down and now is up. He asked her what comes next and she said plainly, "down". And she's right - absolutely right.
See the middle class doesn't think about stocks/investing every day because it would interfere with their work. It's true, it's not a good habit to have for a working person - they should have/want an investment that has a positive long term outlook and requires little attention but what if the modes of that investment is faulty? What if all that hard work and savings are going into a bucket that has a hole in it or no bottom at all?
In a nutshell, here is the lie: get a job, one that you love or can tolerate, work hard, save and put $ in your 401k for your retirement and then when you either have more $ to invest or make more $, you can invest in more aggressive stocks. I don't use the word lie because I believe that some group of people is orchestrating a great crime against the middle class but more because we have bought an incorrect message. Whether we make the message moral or immoral, the message of investing and paying into our 401k which is all based on a stupid inflated stock market gives us a low (insert stupid crazy low) percentage of ever seeing the benefit of that money again. We simply won't see the fruit of our labor when we are investing at the top of a growing bubble.
Will the stock market tumble? Who knows? But is it a good bet that there will be massive corrections? Yes, yes and yes! I have spent the last 8 years studying wealth/wealth cycles and habits of the top tier investors and the fact that the middle class is doing it wrong because that's what great machine/lie is wanting us to do.
My goal is not to sway you from your 401k or send you into a panic. My goal is to help you recognize that you have a lot of hedging to do and a lot of preparation for when the market corrects. Even if you're saying to yourself right now, "the market won't affect me!" think of it this way...
When I started trading commodities in 2011 the Dow was roughly at 13,000. In 2018 it hit 27,000 and today sits just under 26,000. The market recovered from black Tuesday around 1953 so it took roughly 60 years to get to 13,000 and only 7 years to get to double that. They call that a parabolic move and as investors and traders know, the response to a parabolic move to the upside is a parabolic move to the downside. Its simple math. People who made their money will want some of it back and when they sell, the $ we invested gets devalued.
So, moving on - there is no need to move your $ around just yet - you have a lot of studying to do first. But, it is time to hedge against that move downward so in the interest of your education let me point you to someone who is crazy smart and better equipped to tell that story. Check out Mike Maloney's video on the debt collapse here .
Stability for the middle-class sole proprietor/entrepreneur means plugging the hole in the bucket. It means we can no longer trust the narrative of middle class investing/saving. It means, waking up to the bullshit narrative we have been sold and taking appropriate and conservative measures to ensure our family's stability. Because if we don't wake up, we will steal from our children and prolong any chance of retirement and long term health.